Week 4 NFL Picks

I did a lot better last week going 11-5 and I jumped up a few spots in my pick ’em pool because of that. Guess that’s what happens when you pick a few upsets. I might go with that theme this week to see if my luck continues.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Bills don’t look that bad with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. He gives them a better chance to win but the Jets are still a better team and will overpower them in this game. The only way I see the Jets losing is if Mark Sanchez reverts to last year’s form or if all of the Bills points come from CJ Spiller kick returns.

Pick: Jets

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

This is a good game for the Browns to get their first win. The Bengals are 2-1 but Carson Palmer has looked terrible this season. He has a favorable matchup against a Browns secondary that was burned by Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin last week. If Palmer can make the most of this matchup then the Bengals have it easy. Their defense has looked rock solid so Peyton Hillis and the Browns will have their work cut out for them. He did gain 140 yards on the ground against the Ravens, though but I think Cinci will gameplan for him more. I am going to be a fool here and take the Browns because I am on the “Carson Palmer sucks” bandwagon.

Pick: Browns

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Say what you want about their QB situation, the Steelers defense has shown to be good enough to win any game their in no matter how bad their offense looks. However, the Ravens defense is going to be tough to handle and the Steelers offense has shown to be fairly one-dimensional aside from a few big plays from Batch. I think the Steelers will win this because Flacco hasn’t played well against good defenses and the Steelers D is as good as it gets. Pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

You can expect the Broncos to pass the ball around 50 times while running only 15 or so, while it will be the opposite for the Titans. Kyle Orton had over 400 yards passing last week but the Broncos only had one TD. Titans might want to adopt the Colts “bend but don’t break” strategy and use it against Denver this week. It might be difficult since their corner is out and the Broncos have plenty of wideouts they can go to. My gut says Titans though because I don’t think the Broncos will stop Chris Johnson.

Pick: Titans

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Well this is the easiest pick of the week.

Pick: Packers

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Everyone’s hopped off the Niners bandwagon, not me though. Why? Because they’re in the NFC West. I still don’t think they’re going to win this game, though. Atlanta’s coming off a huge win while the Niners just fired their OC after getting beaten up by the Chiefs. 0-4 doesn’t mean you’re season’s over but it’s definitely time to panic in SF.

Pick: Falcons

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

It’s pretty depressing to see your team being 14 point underdogs against a team you despise. It’s also depressing to see that the chances of winning this game are going to be slim but I’m going to pick them anyway. Why? Because I’m a homer and an idiot with nothing to lose from these silly NFL picks. Pick: Panthers

Seattle Seahawks vs. St Louis Rams

The Seahawks could actually be the top team in the West this year with the Niners in the shape they’re in. They look dominant at home though but they were annihilated by the Broncos on the road. I think they should be able to beat the Rams, though. St Louis was impressive against Washington last week but I’ve been more impressed with the Seahawks.

Pick: Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

I have no idea why but the Jags always seem to play the Colts well but they’ve ended up on the losing to them most of the time. This might follow that trend but I have to think the Colts should steamroll the Jags with how bad they’ve looked the last two weeks.

Pick: Colts

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

If Andre Johnson was the Texans only capable receiver then I would say the Raiders have a chance. Unfortunately, the Texans are loaded in that area so it should be an easy win for them.

Pick: Texans

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

This was the game where we find out if Michael Vick is for real or not. Anyone can look good against the Lions and Jaguars but the Redskins are a much tougher team on paper. Then again, they just lost to the Rams and have given up a ton of yards this year so you never know. I am going to say the Redskins win this and the Eagles defense gets torched by Donovan McNabb.

Pick: Redskins

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Diego Chargers

Seems like another easy pick but the Cardinals actually have a better record….huh? Look, the Chargers offense is still one of the best in the league while the Cards defense is one of the worst. Oh, and Derek Anderson is still terrible. Both teams will be .500 by the end of the week.

Pick: Chargers

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants Weird that the Bears are the underdogs in this game. The Giants offense is turnover prone, they can’t run the ball and their defense is going to be without Matthias Kiwunuka. The Bears were handed a win from Green Bay last week but I like what I’ve seen from them more than the Giants.

Pick: Giants

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Sort of a “must win” game for the Dolphins if they want to prove they’re the best in the East. The Pats secondary has shown it’s flaws this season and it’s a good opportunity for Brandon Marshall to take advantage of that. The Dolphins will really need to control the time of possession to win the game, too. They’ve got two backs that can keep the chains moving and eat up the clock while the Patriots can score on drives spanning less than 4 minutes. Those Dolphins linebackers also need to cover tight ends better because Aaron Hernandez can do the same thing that Dustin Keller did to them last week. I think the Dolphins will pull it out, though.

Pick: Dolphins

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