Rangers-Capitals Game 2 Recap

I’m beginning to see a trend with these Eastern Conference playoff games. The loser in all but one game has been shutout including tonight’s game where the Caps were 2-0 winners over the New York Rangers. Oddly enough, this victory came in game 2 of the series to give the Caps a 2-0 lead. This wasn’t as exciting as Wednesday’s contest and the Caps certainly weren’t at their best but it’s win they “grinded it out for.”  Sometimes good goaltending, defensive player and special teams can lead to good things like playoff wins!

Thoughts/Observations:

– Make no mistake about it, the Caps were outplayed for 40 minutes tonight, especially in the opening frame where they were outshot 13-7. The Rangers forechecked harder and didn’t allow the Caps to get the puck deep in their zone at all. Things changed big time in the 2nd period when the Caps flat out dominated the Rangers and scored the only two goals of the contest. I’m pretty sure New York had zero scoring chances during that period.

– Michal Neuvirth has earned himself the starting job for at least this series unless he is disastrous in games 3 & 4. He looked very calm and collective tonight to earn his first NHL playoff shutout. The defense in front of him deserves a lot of credit for only allowing 22 shots but he made a lot of big saves when he had to. Time to see how he does in a more hostile environment at Madison Square Garden.

– 18 shots on goal and only recording three in the final period aren’t going to win you a lot of games even if you go into that frame with the lead. We’re lucky the Rangers don’t have a lot of offensive talent or we may not be leading the series 2-0.

– This is becoming quite a rivalry. You can sense a lot of bad blood between these two teams with all of the scrums happening after the whistle and there’s a few fights just waiting to happen. Stepan actually looked like he wanted to go with Erskine a little bit.

– Sean Avery is a clown. Annoying, nobody likes him but he is oh so entertaining.

– They say you live and die by special teams in the post-season. The powerplay finally converted tonight (though they were 1-3) and they killed off both New York powerplays only allowing two shots combined.

– The Caps are still continuing to squander chances. The two biggest ones tonight were Mike Knuble’s shorthanded chance going off the post and Alex Ovechkin’s breakaway being shut down by Lundqvist. Let’s hope we can finish those in games that we aren’t winning.

– The best line for us tonight was probably the third line of Johansson-Laich-Chimera. They had the best corsi/fenwick rating among forwards and had cycled the puck nicely on Chimera’s goal. Chimera also led the team in SOG’s with five. Funny how he went from a possible scratch to one of our more productive players. Bad news for Eric Fehr but I think he may replace Marco Sturm at some point. Something to note about this line is that they had easier zone starts compared to others which would explain the high corsi rates.

– Carlson and Alzner had another strong game by limiting New York’s “top line” tonight and Alzner having three blocked shots. One of them seemed to hurt him a bit which had me, and the rest of the fanbase, worried sick. Scott Hannan also had a strong game skating 21 minutes and bailing out some of Jeff Schultz’s misadventures….

– You can tell that Mike Green’s presence on the powerplay is really showing. They were passing the puck better and getting it to the net a lot more efficiently when he was on the ice. His shot on net is what opened the door for Jason Arnott’s goal. Also, Green only skated about 16 minutes tonight which is really strange for him but it’s probably better this way for now. Also blocked two shots.

– Only one player had a shift length of over :50. That’s what I like to see.

I’m a little worried going into Sunday’s game since the Rangers arguably played better than us tonight and they are definitely going to be hungry to get their first win of the series. It doesn’t help that the game is on the road either and what happened to us the last time we played at MSG. My hope is that we can take at least one game there and finish them at home. A sweep would be nice but I don’t think it’s likely.

Three Stars

1. Michal Neuvirth

2. Jason Chimera

3. Karl Alzner

Rangers-Capitals Game 1 Recap

Last night’s game sure was one hell of a way to start off this series. You could say that it almost picked up where game 7 of the 2009 series left off. Strong goaltending from Lundqvist, Alex Ovechkin and Marc Staal up against each other and a very close game that ended in thrilling fashion in overtime. These two teams appeared to be evenly matched with each other for the first two periods with the score knotted at 0-0 but the Capitals were outchancing the Rangers big time. Henrik Lundqvist, a few bad bounces and strong defensive play from New York kept it a tie game. It was then the Caps defense made a critical mistake about two minutes into the third period where Mike Green and John Erskine double-teamed Brandon Prust, leaving Ranger defenseman Matt Gilroy wide open as he fired a shot over Neuvirth’s shoulder to give the Rags a 1-0 lead.

That’s when Washington fans began to panic because the Rangers were playing just about as good of a defensive game as you could and Lundqvist has had our number in the past. What did the Caps do to get around this? First off, it took a good effort from Alex Ovechkin to drive to the front of the net and shoulder down Dan Girardi in the process as he and Alex Semin chipped away at a rebound to tie the game. After that, things began to even out again with Neuvirth and Lundqvist having a good ol’ fashioned goaltender’s duel as each net minder made one big save after another to keep the score even. Things finally came to an end with Jason Arnott forcing a turnover in New York’s zone and sending a pass to a waiting Alex Semin who scored his first playoff goal in what seems like forever and put Washington on top 1-0 in the series.

You have to give both team’s a lot of credit for putting on a great show tonight and having what might have been the most exciting game of the playoffs so far (only 4 games to work with but still!). I know it was probably frustrating to watch the Caps fail on numerous scoring chances and falling behind again, but the Rangers played a great game and really did all they could to keep up with the Caps. Be glad that Washington won and hope they can keep things going.

Notes/Observations:

– As I pointed out earlier, the Rangers played about as good of a defensive games as any team could today. Marc Staal and Dan Girardi logged over 30 minutes of ice time a piece with a lot of their starts coming in their own zone. John Tortorella seemed to have these two on the ice every time Ovechkin was and that’s usually his plan whenever we play the Rangers. Both did very well for the most part but they got fatigued late in the game from playing so many minutes. Girardi was clocked by Ovechkin on the Caps first goal and Staal made a bad turnover on the game-winner. Still, these two are going to give us a lot of trouble over the next couple of weeks.

– One of the biggest criticisms of this team is their star players not showing up in the playoffs. Ovechkin had a goal tonight, fired 15 shots at the net (6 got on goal) and made a key play on the first goal by driving to the net to create pressure. Definitely what I want to see out of him. Nicklas Backstrom missed on a few golden chances but I’m hoping that changes soon. Meanwhile, Semin had what is now known as the “Sasha hat-trick.” One goal, one assist and a hooking penalty.

– Let’s go through the play on the game-winning goal. It’s hard to say what the best part of it was. Brooks Laich managing to keep the puck in the New York zone, Jason Arnott’s big frame knocking down Staal’s clearing attempt or his pass that set up Semin’s rocket of a slapshot which scored the game winner. Something that you want to watch over and over again if you’re a Caps fan.

– Going with Neuvirth tonight made sense seeing how he hasn’t done anything to lose his job even though I think Varlamov is the better goalie. That said, Neuvirth was great tonight. 24/25 saves and a few key ones late in the game. His best being a point-blank stop on Marian Gaborik. Thinking that we’ll see Varlamov eventually but if we don’t have a goalie controversy for the playoffs because Neuvirth’s playing better then that’s fine by me.

– Going through one of the bad parts of the game. What in the hell was Mike Green thinking trying to double team Brandon Prust like that? I am pretty sure John Erskine is capable enough of doing that by himself. Either we didn’t scout Gilroy enough or Green thought someone else had him because leaving him wide open like that was an awful decision on his part.

– Aside from that gaffe, good performance by the defense corps. Scott Hannan led the pack in ice time with around 28 minutes and blocked four shots. Alzner had eight blocked shots, Green had four and Schultz had six. Very nice performance all around.

– Brooks Laich didn’t get on the score-sheet but he was 13/18 on face-offs and played great on the penalty kill.

– Speaking of which, the PK played very well on both attempts and so did the powerplay even though they did score. Lots of good scoring chances with a couple that went off the post or into Lundqvist’s glove.

– Only four penalties between two teams and a Fenwick of 48-29. Fun game to watch, that’s for sure.

I’m very excited to watch the rest of this series and I still think things can go either way, especially if the Rangers played like they did today. They don’t have the forward depth to outscore Washington but their defense and Lundqvist can keep them in every game in this series at least. One of their forwards will need to step up eventually, though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a bottom-six player after watching this game.

Western Conference Playoff Predictions

Copper and Blue did the Pythagorean Expectations for this one already. They show that the Sharks, Hawks and Preds performed very well against playoff teams this year while ones that struggled were the Ducks, Kings and Coyotes. Also showed that the Canucks struggled a bit against playoff teams, which is interesting. Let’s do a quick look at each series.

Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Much like the last team the Caps wanted to face were the Rangers, I’m sure the Blackhawks were at the bottom of the list of teams that Vancouver wanted to play in the first round. Both teams seem to match up evenly with each other in a lot of departments. They both have similar corsi and fenwick percentages but Vancouver’s top 3 forwards have grossly outperformed Chicago’s (though that partially has to do with VAN giving the Sedins a ton of offensive zone starts while Chicago gives Toews a lot in his own zone). Chicago has a lot of secondary scoring in Troy Brouwer and Bryan Bickell so that shouldn’t be a concern but Vancouver’s D is vastly improved from last season. They didn’t have a big shutdown guy healthy last year and now they have Keith Ballard and Dan Hamhus, who I think will make a big difference. Kevin Bieksa has improved vastly this year, too.

I think what it comes down to is Vancouver’s top players showing up. The Sedins, Kesler and Luongo were all terrible against the Hawks in their last two playoff series and Vancouver needs them to perform if they want to get past them. The most glaring advantage the Canucks have over Chicago is their goaltending and depth in general. It’s going to be tough but I’ll say the Canucks get over the hump and take this series. Canucks in 7

San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings

Poor LA, I really thought they would make a run in the playoffs this year and it looked like that until Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams both went down at around the same time. It’s hard for me to think that the Kings have enough up front to out-score the Sharks potent offense unless someone gets hot and fast. Sure, they have good players like Dustin Brown and Ryan Smyth but is that enough to match what San Jose has?

I think the reputation the Sharks have has “choke artists” could be dispelled after last season since they made it to the conference finals and lost to a superior Hawks team. This time, it seems that they have more than enough to do that again. Marleau, Thornton and Heatley aren’t being solely riled upon for their scoring with how good Clowe, Couture and Pavelski have been this season and that will play a big factor. Yes, the Kings defense is good and Quick isn’t a bad goalie but I think the Sharks just have too much for LA to handle. Sharks in 5

Detroit Red Wings vs. Phoenix Coytoes

As much as I like Phoenix, it’s hard for me to say that they match up well with the Wings here. Hell, any team who is relying on Lauri Korpikoski and Taylor Pyatt for their goal-scoring is going to be suspect. Phoenix rode Ilya Bryzgalov and a few high shooting percentages to get into the playoffs despite poor special teams and no huge scoring threat outside of Shane Doan and that doesn’t make me confident about their chances. Especially since their defense surrenders tons of shots nightly.

Outside of goaltending, Phoenix doesn’t really have any favorable matchups here. Yes, Hanzal and Belanger are two-way centers but Detroit has Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Keith Yandle and Michal Rozsival have been very good for the Yotes but how are they going to fare up against Detroit’s top lines if they are even assigned them? I’m also not confident with how Doan, Belanger and Whitney will play against Lidstrom and Stuart. Phoenix’s lower lines might have some similar luck against the Wings lower pairings but I don’t think it will be enough for the Yotes to win. Bryzgalov needs to be a wall and Howard needs to be a sieve, basically. Red Wings in 5

Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators

Series I’m most excited for because it can go either way. You have the Ducks with their lethal first line and powerplay against a Preds team with strong defense and one of the best goalies in the league. It’s worth noting that while the Ducks top two lines have been fantastic, the rest of their team isn’t impressive at all so if Getzlaf, Selanne and Perry all go into a funk, then there’s going to be serious trouble for the Ducks. It doesn’t look like it with the way they’ve been playing lately, though and it helps that the Ducks defense corps is playing great too, especially Visnovsky.

The Preds have yet to win a playoff series and a lot of people seem to think that trend will continue. However, there’s a chance they can beat the Ducks here but it will take a strong effort from Shea Weber, Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne for that to happen. Then there’s the issue of the Preds lack of offense.  The fact that Sergei Kostitsyn is their leading goal scorer is enough of a problem but the Preds do a lot of scoring by committee and that will probably continue in the playoffs. The Preds fenwick and corsi numbers at even strength are a lot more impressive than the Ducks but Anaheim’s getting lucky at the right time, hence why they pulled off this impressive run at the end of the season.

The keys to victory for the Preds here are staying out of the box, shutting down the Ducks top line and having Rinne being a brick wall. None of those will be easy but it’s possible so I’m going to take Nashville in an upset. Jonas Hiller not playing for the Ducks will also help them out even if Dan Ellis has been adequate. Predators in 6

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

I know that these posts are becoming monotonous right now but I have to make my playoff playoff predictions at some point, right? First, I decided to do what Copper and Blue did with the Western Conference and look at how each team did against other playoff teams using the Pythagorean Expectation formula I experimented with in an earlier post.

It’s not exactly comforting to see the Rangers with a good record and goal differential against playoff teams but the good news is that the Caps have played well against playoff teams, too. It’s still concerning to see that the Rangers have outscored and have the 2nd best winning percentage against playoff teams. There’s a few interesting cases here, though. The Flyers sitting at the bottom being a huge one. Same with the Canadiens having the most wins but a terrible goal differential and the lowest amount of goals scored in these games. Tampa Bay’s position is understandable since they had a lot of games earlier in the season against Philly, Washington and Boston while Dan Ellis and Mike Smith were still their starting goalies. I just thought this was an interesting way to look at things. Now onto the actual previews!

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers

The season series and New York’s performance against Washington this season is making things seem like the Caps will see a similar fate as they did last year. Something to keep in mind is that this Washington team is a lot different than the one from last season. They give up a lot less shots (29.0 per game) and still manage to outshoot their opponents (31 shots/game) and score enough to win games. Last season, they were a mediocre defensive team but offset it by blowing out their opponents, while this year they are a more defensively responsible team who can still score. The Rangers are a top 10 defensively but a below-average offensive team, so the Caps goaltending could be what determines this series. Michal Neuvirth, Semyon Varlamov and Braden Holtby have all been average to great this season depending on the night and they are going to have to be great every night now, especially with who is in the crease on the Rangers end.

The lingering question all season has been “what’s wrong with the Capitals offense?” and there’s a few answers I have for that question. First off, I think that bad luck has definitely caught up with the Caps this season as Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have career low shooting percentages and their numbers show it.  One reason for it is that Backstrom is shooting the puck less but both have gotten more defensive zone starts this year. Albeit, against weaker competition. I don’t think either are a concern in the playoffs and the goals will come to them. The acquisition of Jason Arnott has also played dividends as he has shown chemistry with Alexander Semin (someone who always struggles in the playoffs) and given the Caps forward corps a lot more depth. You have to like seeing Arnott as the second line center compared to Eric Belanger or Tomas Fleischmann, in my opinion. As for defense, they’ve performed well so far and hopefully it translates into the playoffs. The biggest concern here is that Dennis Wideman and Tom Poti will likely be out for the first round but the blow was softened with the news of Mike Green coming back. I know Green is an enigma in the playoffs but he should be able to help the powerplay (he’s been on ice for more PPG’s than any other WSH defenseman per 60 mins) and it’s better to have him playing than Tyler Sloan or Sean Collins. Green likely wont have ridiculous minutes in this series anyway since I see things being evenly distributed between John Carlson, Karl Alzner and Scott Hannan.

For the Rangers, the loss of Ryan Callahan is pretty critical but I noted that in an earlier post. His minutes will probably be taken over by Wojtek Wolski and Marian Gaborik will have to really improve on his play from this season. He’s coming off his lowest goal total since 2003-04 (not counting 08-09 because he only played 17 games) and is the most dangerous winger they have. Brandon Dubinsky might be the player who gives Washington the most headaches this season given how well he’s played and against tough competition. Their defense is very young but they’ve been extremely impressive. Marc Staal and Dan Girardi keep getting more difficult assignments but their corsi rates aren’t as impressive as I remember. Still,  anyone who has seen the Caps play the Rangers knows how Ovechkin fares against Staal. After that, there’s Mike Sauer, Ryan McDonagh and Bryan McCabe who are all very good but get softer assignments than Staal and Girardi (who seem to get buried with a ton of defensive zone starts). Oh, and there’s that Swedish guy in the net who can steal any game, too.

This is going to be a very long series but I think Washington will be able to get past New York. I know Washington’s powerplay has been scrutinized a lot this year but any PP unit that generates over 50 shots per 60 minutes is going to get a few through eventually and it has been improving since the deadline. The Rangers powerplay only generates 39 shots per 60 minutes so considering that and NYR’s shot statistics, it will take Neuvirth or Varlamov to completely flop for the Caps to lose this series. That and Lundqvist having a Halak-like performance and he will probably steal a few games for the Rangers anyway. Capitals in 6

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres

These teams are going in different directions heading into the post-season. The Sabres are 8-1-1 in their last 10 while the Flyers are 3-4-3. However, there’s been many “hot” teams that have failed in the first round so I don’t put much thought into those stats. What I do know is that Philadelphia has better offense, defense and depth than Buffalo. Buffalo’s leading them in shots per game but I think a lot of it has to do with Lindy Ruff’s system. If I showed you each team’s top three forwards, I’m sure most would take the Flyers in a heartbeat. That’s not to say the Sabres don’t have some firepower up front because Drew Stafford, Tomas Vanek and Jason Pominville can light the lamp a bit and Philly not having Chris Pronger could hurt them but Coburn and Timonen usually get the tougher assignments anyway. I’m just having a tough time believing that an forward corps with so much talent can continue to underperform like they have the past month so I think the Flyers clearly have an edge over Buffalo in offense.

Where the Sabres have the edge over the Flyers is goaltending and special teams. Goaltending is pretty obvious since anyone with a brain would take Ryan Miller over Sergei Bobrovsky over Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton and while the Flyers D is good, they give up over 30 shots a game and all Buffalo does is shoot the puck so Bobrovsky will have to go back to how good he was in the first half of the season. Then again, the Sabres D is below average with Tyler Myers having a sophomore slump and no real standouts after him except for maybe Jordan Leopold. Hard to think that guys like Breire, Versteeg, Carter and Richards will stay quiet against this defense. Special teams are kind of a wash. Sabres have a strong powerplay while the Flyers have a great penalty kill and the Flyers have a weak powerplay going up against a poor Sabres penalty kill. Both team’s even strength stats are very similar in terms of shots and corsi but I’m going to be bold and pick the Sabres to win based on their better powerplay numbers and Miller. Sabres in 7

Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens

This one I thought would be easy to pick given how beaten up the Habs blue-line is and the way Boston wiped the floor with them the last time they played. After looking at the stats, I don’t think it will be as lopsided as I presumed. Boston actually surrenders the second most shots in the league but the absurd goaltending of Tim Thomas has gotten them to where they are. That and a huge step forward from Milan Lucic this season in terms of offensive production. Boston’s gotten plenty of production from their top 6 forwards this season but after that, there’s a noticeable drop-off but the lower-six guys have done their job at being solid two-way guys to make up for their lack of talent on the blue-line. Outside of Zdeno Chara and Johnny Boychuk, I consider the Bruins defense corps to be pretty suspect.

Montreal and Boston’s corsi numbers are about equal but Montreal’s going to have a hard time scoring goals since their forward depth isn’t that impressive after Plekanec, Gionta and Cammalleri. The defense might be beaten up but their top 4 isn’t bad at all. Subban has problems in his own zone but you could do a lot worse than him, Spacek, Hamrlik and Gill. I think that the Habs will only go as far as Carey Price takes them, though. He’s had a wonderful season but he’s still very bi-polar with his performances, especially lately. One night he will give up one goal on 35+ shots and another he will give up 6 on 28 shots. The Habs better hope they get the former with how much offense the B’s can create.

Neither team has a particularly good powerplay and both penalty kills are solid so I won’t put much thought into those but I think this Habs team is too inconsistent to make it through the first round. Bruins in 5

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Toughest one to predict so far. In one corner, we have a Pens team without it’s two best players who are grinding it out Lemaire style to win games and in the other corner we have the Bolts who have one of the most lethal forward corps in the playoffs. Ultimately, I think this will come down to whether or not the Pens D can stop Stamkos/St. Louis or if Roloson can stop everything thrown at him. Brooks Orpik and Kris Letang have been phenomenal this season but they have a huge test ahead in halting this Lightning first line. While Stamkos is new to the playoffs, St. Louis and Lecavalier have won before and I think that will play a factor. However, the majority of this Pens team isn’t new to the playoffs either seeing how they won the Cup only two years ago. They are looking to get back there again only by playing a much more defensive game than they used to, which is what you have to do when your current best forward is Chris Kunitz.

Another reason this is a tough series to predict is because both teams have roughly the same amount of shots for and against per game, so special teams and goaltending could be what it comes down to and the Pens have a strong advantage in both of those categories. You’d think with the forward talent Tampa has, they would have a stronger PP but they don’t for some reason. Maybe it’s because Kubina and M-A Bergeron are their only offensive d-men. Pittsburgh missing the services of Matt Cooke could play a factor since he was one of their best penalty killers but the goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury might be what gets them through this series. Their defense corps is good enough and Fleury has been known to play well in the post-season so it might be enough to get them past Tampa Bay even if their forward depth is lacking. Dwayne Roloson has played well for Tampa but I wouldn’t pick him over Fleury. Penguins in 7

 

The Season Series

This is a basic overview of our season series against the Rangers. For the record, I used only even strength data for the shots and save percentage and used shots for the percentages on the powerplay and penalty kill. The strange thing is that while the Caps were thoroughly dominated in two of these games, they played better territorially than the Rangers. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the team playing from behind and forcing a lot of bad shots in on Lundqvist but it’s still kind of interesting. Also, notice how brutal Washington’s save percentages are in all but game 3. That has to change if we want to win this series. I know Varlamov was playing behind a beaten up roster on game 2, but letting in 5 goals on 15 shots at ES and 7 overall is inexcusable. Neuvirth was pretty bad in game 4, as well. The Caps powerplay has also only scored once against the Rangers while our penalty kill has been torched. Those are definitely going to come into play during the playoffs if we want to go anywhere. I know the team has a different make-up now compared to the last time we played NYR but this is still kind of scary to look at.

Getting To Know The New York Rangers

Over the next couple of days, I’m going to be writing previews for the first round of the playoffs seeing how each team matches up against each other. Since this is a Caps blog, I will likely have more than one post regarded their series against the New York Rangers and go into more detail about them starting with this segment where we get to know the Broadway Blueshirts a little more.

Quick Facts:
16th in goals per game
5th in goals allowed per game
18th ranked powerplay
10th ranked penalty kill
+.5 shot differential
Record vs. Washington: 3-1-0
Clear Victory Record: 18-12
Leading goal scorer: Brandon Dubinsky (24 goals)
Leading point getter: Brandon Dubinsky (54 points)

Most Caps fans probably know the Rangers well already since we’ve faced them a lot of times over the years and in the playoffs two years ago where they gave us quite a scare in the first round. We also know them as the team that shut out and embarrassed us twice this season, once on home ice and once on the road. I’ll have a post on the season series a little later but for now, let’s examine our opponent for the next couple weeks.

The Rangers have had a very “up-and-down” season this year and it’s evidenced by Blueshirt Banter’s look at their scoring chances in 2010-11. Sometimes, you’ll get the team that lit us and the Maple Leafs up for 6+ goals and other nights you’ll get the team that was shut out by Atlanta. It’s hard to predict what exactly will happen but I’m sure most of us know that this Rangers team is very dangerous when it’s clicking.

Which Goalie Starts Game 1?

You knew this post was coming sooner or later. With the playoffs only a week away, the Caps are going to have to settle on which one of their young goalies will start Game 1 of the playoffs and soon. The young tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth have been receiving a lot of praise this season for how good they’ve played and it’s really hard to decide which one has the upper-hand going into the playoffs. Of course, my initial answer on who starts is that it shouldn’t matter because hopefully we’ll control the pace of the play and not force the goalies to win games for us but if one of these two were to steal a game for us, who would it be? Let’s look into it.

First let’s take a glimpse at their stats:

Goalie	Team	GP	GS	SA	GA	SV	pct	GAAA	/1200	z-score
Varlamov	WSH	27	25	611	43	568	0.929	5.361	10.5	0.2
Neuvirth	WSH	47	44	1001	79	922	0.921	0.230	0.3	0.0

GAAA = Goals Allowed Above Average. Which means how many shots a goalie has stopped above the league average. By that metric, I think Varlamov has the upper-hand and gives the team the best chance to win. However, there are some concerns I have with him. His inability to stay healthy made him play in 20 less games than Neuvirth this season. I adjusted the data to 1200 shots both goalies to correct this and Varlamov’s stats are still better by a lot. The “he can’t stay healthy” argument doesn’t work in the playoffs for me. He’s healthy now and if he gets hurt, then we roll with Neuvirth.

However, I feel that taking the starting job away from Neuvirth would be a little “unfair” seeing how he’s started about 54% of our games this season and has put up average numbers in doing so. There’s been people saying he’s the most consistent goaltender we have but the numbers suggest that he is a tad streaky.

Month	EV Saves	SA	Save pct
October	190	207	0.918
November	154	170	0.906
December	132	145	0.910
January	59	62	0.952
February	167	180	0.928
March	169	182	0.929
Last 10	220	237	0.928
Overall	871	946	0.921

This is interesting for me because it’s suggesting that Neuvirth has actually played better the past two months than he did in October when he was arguably the team’s MVP. It is also indicating that he has been playing well lately and is coming in hot to the playoffs but he actually has a save percentage of .887 since March 21st. Varlamov’s save percentage since then is .927, granted he played in one less game than Neuvirth then.

Let’s see how Varlamov’s done through the months to see how “streaky” he is.

Month	EV Saves	EV SA	Save pct
October	36	38	0.947
November	62	65	0.954
December	154	167	0.922
January	166	178	0.933
February	96	105	0.914
March	29	32	0.906
April	25	26	0.962

It’s hard to say much about the last two since we’re only going by two starts here but his numbers during December and January are convincing because he was playing well while the team around him wasn’t. One Caps blogger pointed out that Varly’s gotten a lot less offensive support this year than Neuvirth has. Really shows why I never look at wins when judging goalie stats because that shows more about the team’s play rather than his alone. Varly’s had his share of bad games, though but I think his ceiling is higher than Neuvirth’s and he gives us the best chance to win in the playoffs right now.

There’s also the argument that Varlamov has the edge in playoff experience since he was the team’s starting goalie during their last two trips to the post-season. He has a .915 overall save percentage during that time. Definitely pretty decent but could get better. Neuvirth has played in the last two Calder Cups in Hershey and won both of them so he isn’t a newcomer to the playoff atmosphere either, albeit the AHL is a smaller scale than the NHL.

In the end, I have to think that Varlamov should start in Game 1 given he’s been there before and has more potential to steal a few games for us if the offense disappears. That said, I don’t think we will see him in Game 1 because Bruce seems to be committed to Neuvirth. We do know that he hasn’t exactly given his goalies a long leash in the playoffs so we could see a switch if things don’t go as planned. Even if it’s everyone’s fault but Neuvirth’s. When all is said and done, I’m a Caps fan and hope whoever starts for us is a brick wall throughout the playoffs.

Capitals Balanced Corsi Numbers

I’m sure many of you are familiar with what corsi numbers are but if you aren’t here’s a brief summary; It works in the same way that the plus/minus system does only it uses shots instead of goals. For instance, if John Carlson is on the ice while 14 shots directed at the opponent’s net and 12 were directed at his own, he would have a corsi rating of 2. However, one problem with corsi rating is that it doesn’t bring context into the system. Players who take a lot of defensive zone draws are going to have low corsi ratings because well, they spend a lot of time in their own zone. Manny Malholtra having 75% of his starts coming in the defensive zone being a good example of this. This is where balanced corsi is nice.

Look at Malholtra’s corsi rating compared to other players with similar zone starts.

NAME	Year		TEAM	Corsi		OZ%
MANNYMALHOTRA	2011		VAN	-9.5		25
NICKSCHULTZ	2009		MIN	-14.44		26.5
BLAIRBETTS	2011		PHI	-18.19		26.9
NATETHOMPSON	2010		T.B	-21.39		27.8
STEPHANEVEILLEUX	2009		MIN	-10.33		29
ZENONKONOPKA	2010		T.B	-10.64		29
RAFFITORRES	2011		VAN	-3.67		29.4
ZENONKONOPKA	2011		NYI	-27.31		29.8
KURTSAUER	2009		PHX	-18.84		30
RYANJOHNSON	2009		VAN	-21.4		30.1

You’ll see that Malhotra has a higher corsi rating than other players who take a lot of starts in their own zone. The people at Broad Street Hockey looked at this for the Flyers and provided data for every player who has played 3/4 of their games in the last four seasons. What they did to figure out the balanced corsi numbers was compare the average corsi numbers of the nearest 100 players and figure out an “expected corsi rating” out of it. They would then compare it with their actual corsi rating to get a balanced number. Malhotra’s balanced corsi rating ended up being around 1.65. They also looked at relative corsi ratings to show how much a player improved his team when he was on the ice, which works if the player is on a mediocre/bad team. Basically it takes his corsi on ice and the team’s corsi while he’s off the ice and gives him credit for the difference.

More to the point, Broad Street Hockey was nice enough to provide everyone with all of the balanced and relative corsi numbers for every player so I decided to look at them for the Caps this year and through the years. This blog was made a few weeks ago so I did some updating for our corsi numbers this season.

Panthers-Capitals recap

Tonight’s game was a little comforting and discouraging for the Washington Capitals. They handily beat a weak Florida Panthers team but they were outplayed for about 30 minutes tonight. Then again, this was without Scott Hannan, Alex Semin, Jason Arnott among many others so it’s good to see the team play well without key players. They were outplayed for almost the entire first period but were winning 2-0 due to two very good powerplays and strong goaltending from Semyon Varlamov who turned aside 18 shots in that period alone. They also surrendered two goals in the third period which probably shouldn’t have happened. So, in the end, there’s a lot to be happy about and some to be concerned about. Caps won 5-2 in their last home game, the powerplay was good, goaltending was even better but we were outplayed and Boudreau still has a tough decision on who gets the start in net for game 1. More on that later. For now, let’s review some notes from this game.

Notes/Observations:

– How about that powerplay? 2/4 tonight and they scored on their first two attempts with the help of some great puck movement and passing. Brooks Laich is starting to look a lot more comfortable playing on the point and he almost had a goal off a huge slapshot but it rang off the post. He also did well up front on the second powerplay attempt and ended up with two assists on the night. It will be nice to rotate guys a little bit once Green comes back now that we we’re finding out what Laich can do at the point.

– Great night for Semyon Varlamov. Stopped 31 of 33 shots thrown his way and had a shutout going until about 5 minutes left in the game. He was fantastic in the first period and the only reason the Caps were winning at the end of 20 minutes. Does he get the start in the next Florida game or will Neuvirth get a chance to out-perform him? We shall see.

– Corsi and Fenwick numbers say that Jeff Schultz and Sean Collins were the best defensive pairing tonight for the Caps and I suppose that’s believable. Schultz had a pretty good night with two blocked shots and an assist and Collins scored his 2nd NHL goal on a nice wrist shot. It helped that Ovechkin set him up perfectly and David Booth made an ill-advised turnover, though. These two were on ice for both Florida goals but I thought Collins played well given his expectations.

– Speaking of David Booth, he had one goal tonight and made mistakes that led to two of Washington goals. Guess I’ll take that!

– Jason Chimera’s definitely battling for ice time in the playoffs but it’s looking more and more like he will be starting in game 1 very soon. He scored another goal tonight (granted, Backstrom did most of the work) and has made an impact every time he steps on the ice. Whether he’s contributing offensively or not.

– Like I said, we were outplayed tonight and the corsi numbers indicate as such. It’s a good thing that Florida doesn’t have much offensive talent outside of Booth, Santorelli and Wise (who wasn’t playing tonight) or it wouldn’t have been such an easy win. I don’t think we can win a lot of playoff games with the way we played in the first 20 minutes of this game (aside from the PP).

– Matt Hendricks could have had a hatty tonight because he had three golden chances and only one of them got through Clemmensen. All three were right next to the net, too. “Crash the net, score goals?”

– Alan May should join Joe B and Locker more often. Just a thought.

– Ryan Carter’s boarding penalty looked a lot worse than it did at slow motion. I thought it was a good hit by him and not necessarily dirty and Collins wasn’t ready for it. I didn’t like that Matt Hendricks got a 2 minute instigator for that, though but I hate the instigator rule, so yeah.

– Only three players with ice times over 20 minutes for the Caps tonight: Alzner, Backstrom and Carlson. Mostly due to a couple long PK shifts, I think.

Like I said, there’s still some concerns but the team’s winning and I’m really just counting down the days until playoff time (and watching opponents games to see who we’ll face in the first round). All of the questions we have will be answered very soon and I’m sure not everyone will be satisfied with the results but that’s the way it goes.

Three Stars:
1. Semyon Varlamov

2. Brooks Laich

3. Jason Chimera

 

Capitals Month In Review: March

March sure was one hell of a month for the Caps. They went 12-2-1 while outscoring opponents 41-26. They also had a strong shot % of 52.4% and Fenwick of 50.4% showing that they were definitely outplaying teams on a lot of nights to win games. Though, it helps when you have two games against the Islanders, two others against the Oilers and Blue Jackets. However, they have victories over strong teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago and Philadelphia but it should be noted that the victories against those teams came in OT or a shootout. In fact, 6 of their wins this month were after regulation and 8 of them were only one-goal victories. I made a post during their nine game winning streak suggesting that luck had a lot to do with the streak and that could have been the case in some areas. There were definitely a few games we won despite being outplayed completely (Philly, NJ).

One of which was goaltender Braden Holtby having an absurd .962 save percentage at even strength in seven games played. I’m not discrediting Holtby at all because he’s been outstanding in his last few call-ups but I’m having a difficult time believing that his actual talent level is there. Sometimes you find diamonds in the rough but I think Holtby is just going through a hot strike similar to what Michal Neuvirth went through in November. He was a big reason why the team’s save percentage at even strength this month was .939 Hey, if one of the goalies can get hot in the playoffs and only yield 1.73 goals per game then I won’t complain.

The trades George McPhee made at the deadline provided instant results, which is very good. Dennis Wideman was playing over 20 minutes every night and there were many where he skated the most minutes on the team. He played on the powerplay and penalty kill and ended the month with one goal, six assists and a robust corsi rating of 35. Unfortunately, he ended the month on the DL after suffering hematoma in his leg. He will be missed. Jason Arnott’s presence was also felt immediately as he had 6 points in 9 games with the team and is already rubbing off a good influence on his new teammates.

In terms of injuries, the Caps were still battling them in March and some of them occurred at the worst time. There was the aforementioned injury to Wideman which is a huge blow. Mike Green also missed the entire month and so did Tom Poti. Arnott and Ovechkin were also out for a few games to rest lingering injuries and Nicklas Backstrom also had to miss five games with a hand injury. Eric Fehr also went back to his second home on the IR briefly after sustaining another injury.  Oh, and Varlamov only played in two games in March, too. It does speak a lot about the depth this team has that they can still win despite injuries. The fact that we can rely on guys like Scott Hannan, John Carlson, Karl Alzner and Jeff Schultz to step it up when key players get hurt is a big thing. However, a whole new burden will be faced upon them in April with Wideman gone. We’ll see how we can get through that. Hopefully at least through the first round.

Special teams were a mixed bag as usual this month. I have read some stats saying that we have one of the best PP’s in the league at generating shots (which is really what matters. We’ve fell victim to low shooting percentages this season.) and we generated 48 shots on 38 PP attempts this month. That equals to about 1.26 shots per attempts. Yeah…..not too good.  However, a success rate of 15.8% is a little better than recent months from what I remember. The penalty kill was outstanding with a success rate of 90.8% and only allowing 5 goals.

This strong month allowed the Caps to gain first place in the Southeast back, clinch a playoff spot and they are now looking to get to 1st place in the Eastern Conference. They’ve been trading places with the Flyers the past few days. The one-goal victories and high save percentages make me believe that there’s a lot of luck involved with our success but we were getting largely unlucky during December and some of January so maybe it’s time things went our way? Let’s hope we can carry this into April and the playoffs when it really matters now.

Player Performances:

Top Performers:

Mike Knuble: 11 points and he’s reached the 20 goal plateau for the 8th year in a row. He’s always been one to start slow out of the gates and then finish strong and that’s exactly what he’s doing this season. An interesting note is that his shooting percentage is a lot lower than his career average despite him crashing the net like our fanbase encourages. Maybe his luck’s going in the right direction at the right time? I sure hope so!

Braden Holtby: .962 even strength save percentage including two shutouts and outstanding performances against Tampa Bay and Carolina. I expect him to finish the year in Hershey and continue his quest for the Calden Cup but we might have an interesting situation on our hands when Varlamov becomes a restricted free agent at the end of the year. Keep in mind that him, Neuvirth and Holtby are all around the same age.

Alex Ovechkin: Led the team in points with 13 despite missing three games. That’s good enough for me to put him in this category. Was also second on the team in hits.

Alexander Semin: Okay, it was tough for me to put him in here. He was tied with Knuble for the leader in goals (5) but he also took seven penalties. Seven. Still, it’s hard to complain when he’s producing offensively (11 points on the month) and it looks like he might get to 30 goals on the season. However, I still think this describes him best. ESPECIALLY if he pulls another disappearing act in the playoffs.

John Carlson: 10 points, had the highest Fenwick rating on the team, blocked 30 shots and led defensemen with 34 shots on goal. All while taking on the hardest competition. I still wonder why I don’t hear his name in Calder discussions yet Cam Fowler’s name comes up all the time… (I’m not saying that he should win but he deserves some consideration). A nice rebound month for Carlson, anyway.

Dennis Wideman: See above.

Brooks Laich: Only three goals but he had 10 points on the month and was one of the better fore-checkers on the team so that earns him a positive vote from me. He also did a fine job at centering the second and third lines while Arnott was out which explains those seven assists.

Under Acheivers

Matt Bradley: Held off the scoresheet completely this month, was a -3 and his Corsi numbers are even worse. He did lead the team in hits so at least he’s being somewhat useful but I have to think that he might be a candidate to be scratched once a few other players get healthy.

Marco Sturm: I was willing to give him a pass early on because he was creating scoring chances but lately, it’s becoming more and more obvious why the Kings put him on waivers. It’s hard to believe that he keeps getting top 6 minutes on a lot of nights. 1 goal and 5 points in 15 games.

Jeff Schultz: Only 17 blocked shots, had a negative corsi and fenwick rating and made some very ill-advised turnovers in March. Maybe playing with Scott Hannan again will help him out a little? He did score a nice goal against NJ, though.

Tyler Sloan: How someone manages to have a Corsi and Fenwick rating in the -30’s despite only playing in FOUR GAMES is just astounding.

Other Performances:
Michal Neuvirth: Weak end of the month prevents him from being a top performer but he still had a strong .929 save percentage at even strength in March.

Nicklas Backstrom: Looked like he had found his edge but was sidelined with a hand injury that kept him out of five games. Finished the month with only 7 points but still had a good face-off efficiency rate of 56.7%.

Marcus Johansson: 4 goals and 8 points is a solid month for MoJo but the bad Corsi numbers despite getting offensive zone starts keeps him from being a top performer. That and his brutal face off percentage of 42.7%. He has a chance at finishing the year with at least 30 points, which is a decent rookie season, imo.

Jason Arnott: If only we didn’t have to rest him for a few games… He has been exactly what this team has needed. Veteran leadership and some strong offensive numbers to give us a real second line center for the first time in awhile.

Eric Fehr: Scored two goals in his first game back, then kind of disappeared and got hurt again. Welp!

Karl Alzner: Led the team with 34 blocked shots, had a solid corsi and fenwick ratings along with two assists. About what you can ask of him. He was also on ice for only 8 of 26 goals this month.

Scott Hannan: About the same as Alzner only he scored a goal too. Maybe he should shoot the puck more?

Semyon Varlamov: Looked good against Carolina, not so good against Ottawa but he let in goals that absolutely need to be stopped in both games. He only played in two so I think it might be best to let him play out the rest of the season and then have Bruce make the decision on who to start based off that. I’ll have more on that in a later post, though.

Boyd Gordon: 2 goals but he had some bad corsi and fenwick numbers which is expected when you play in a defensive role like him. He also had a strong face-off percentage. Basically making us forget that David Steckel ever existed because Gordo does the same thing only for a lot less money.

Jason Chimera: It’s a shame that the goals haven’t come to him because he had a stretch of good games to end the month but only ended up with one goal. Oddly enough, it was against his former team.